Founded on our reputation for independence, accuracy, objectivity and foresight.

METHODOLOGY

Our analysis methodology sets the standards you trust, and reflects current market realities assessed by thirty years of pathbreaking experience.

Market Relevance and Objectivity

Our methodology is built on a comprehensive analysis of  quantitative and qualitative factors, including supply/demand fundamentals, weather, and key technical indicators used by quantitatively oriented traders.

Increased Market Transparency

Included in our methodology are:

  • verified data for every fossil fuel-fired power plant in the United States
  • hourly data from each National Weather Service station
  • exclusive weather feeds
  • our superior approach to degree-day calculations
  • proprietary analyses of changes in the operation of U.S. coal-fired plants.

We use more than fifty proprietary algorithms to quantify the potential impacts on the electricity and natural gas markets of shifts in weather and supply, competition between natural gas and coal-fired generating units, and other market drivers.

Our proprietary models are updated daily, and are unique in dynamically assessing the electricity, natural gas and coal markets on a fully integrated basis. 

Rigorous Standards

EBW works closely with verified market sources that help provide complete and accurate information. Sources that provide relevant, comprehensive and accurate market data are essential to transparent pricing and analysis processes.

Our teams work hard to verify all information that is provided to them and to ensure our analysis is as complete and accurate as possible.

History of Integrity

Led by Andy Weissman, EBW has provided strategic advice to leading firms in the energy sector for more than thirty years, playing a key role in developing innovative business structures for major energy transactions, and transforming state and federal energy and environmental policy.

Guarantee of Privacy

We are committed to ensuring that your information is secure. To prevent unauthorized access or disclosure we have established physical, electronic and managerial procedures to safeguard information about our clients and our procedures.

Any data you enter into or any results you obtain from Sapphire will be solely available to you and remain your proprietary property.

 

Our Weather Forecast Process

We incorporate forecast data from numerous forecast sources, including the ECMWF, GFS, CMC and the various ensemble output packages that are available. The raw model data is bias-corrected for each forecast point, based on the forecast pattern from that model.

A colder-than-normal pattern will be bias-corrected differently than a warmer-than-normal one.  The bias-corrected model output is then blended together, with the model weightings determined by a combination of longer-term forecast skill and recent model consistency. Medium-range forecasts incorporate data on tropical convection patterns, polar stratospheric processes, and analog projections from current patterns along with shorter-range climate model data.  Long-term seasonal forecasts are generally produced by incorporating available climate model guidance, analog projections based on trend adjusted climate patterns (e.g. global SST, temperature and wind patterns), as well as overall long-term trends.


 

Evolving Methodologies

EBW continuously develops, reviews and revises its methodologies concurrent with evolving geopolitical events and in consultation with industry participants.

The product specifications and trading terms and conditions used in EBW reports reflect typical working practices prevalent in the industry. (See our Glossary.)

EBW publishes forecasts and analysis based on information about spot and contract price transactions, prices of related commodities, relevant freight costs, and other impacts of supply, weather and geopolitical factors.

EBW does not make retrospective adjustments or changes to forecasts or analysis based on information subsequently received.

EBW uses proprietary models where necessary to normalize data and cross-checks all the transaction information it gathers.

Spot and Contract Close Assessments

Published daily and weekly, these reflect the transactable market value of the assessed product at the close of business for the assessed period (daily or weekly). 

Contract price assessments are updated in reports as soon as possible after confirmation is obtained of contract settlement.

Price Changes

The change in prices from the previous period is indicated in green as an increase (+) or in red as a decrease (-). Changes in weekly spot prices represent the changes from the previous week and changes in monthly or quarterly contract prices represent the change from the previous month or quarter.

Geographical Regions

EBW products and services analyze markets on a regional basis to ensure the main drivers in any given area are adequately covered, and currently address the United States or North America.

Units

Prices are quoted in the currency and unit measure relevant to the particular market.

Timing

EBW reports are written on the day of publication. The only exceptions are when a public holiday impacts the market; when this occurs, it is clearly marked on the report.

The date of publication is altered in the event of public holidays. All weekly reports are published at least 48 times per year. Daily reports are published five times per week, but may not appear on certain days due to public holidays.